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This article is part of 四虎影院鈥檚 EDlection 2024 coverage, which takes a look at candidates鈥� education policies and how they might impact the American education system after the 2024 election.

Arizona already looms as one of the handful of battleground states that will decide the 2024 presidential campaign. But closer to home, and farther down the ballot, its legislative races could upend what has been one of America鈥檚 most welcoming environments for school choice.

A pioneer of sorts, the state became the first in the nation to offer education savings accounts, or ESAs, in 2011. A decade later, it was the first to make those programs 鈥� which offer parents roughly $7,500 to spend on their children鈥檚 educational expenses, including private school tuition 鈥� available to any family. 

But following a wave of copycat laws that have subsequently brought ESAs to in the last few years, Arizona voters might set another precedent this fall: becoming the first electorate to hand over governance of its system of private school choice to the state鈥檚 Democratic Party, led by Gov. Katie Hobbs. Doing so could pose a serious test to ESAs鈥� political sustainability, but also to their detractors鈥� powers to stymie them.

Republicans currently hold in both the Arizona Senate and House of Representatives, a narrow enough edge for Democrats to dream of capturing one or both chambers for the first time in decades. With Hobbs approaching her third year in office, the party would enjoy its only period of unified control of government in Arizona since 1966. 

Just two or three seats in each chamber are considered highly competitive, and public polling is rarely conducted in legislative campaigns. The Democratic presidential ticket of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in a recent poll, and is expected to increase Democratic turnout on Election Day, but it is impossible to guess whether such a surge would move votes in lower-profile races.

What is in little doubt is local Democrats鈥� opposition to ESAs. In her first state budget framework, submitted last spring, to repeal the statewide expansion enacted the previous year, which extended eligibility for the program even to well-off families already enrolling their children in private schools. But the idea floundered at the statehouse.

Earlier this year, Hobbs a package of much more modest reforms aiming to bring 鈥渁ccountability鈥� to the system by, among other things, requiring private schools receiving ESA money to fingerprint their teachers (as traditional public schools must). That mandate, along with one preventing ESA families from using their accounts over summer vacation, in the FY 2025 budget passed in June, but that they would do little to stem the growth of private school choice. 

Since eligibility was made universal, enrollment figures show that the number of Arizona students receiving ESAs from 12,000 to 75,000. 

Paul Bentz, a Republican pollster at Highground Public Affairs Consultants, said that legislation to make ESAs more transparent was 鈥渙verwhelmingly popular.鈥� 

I don't think they can outright eliminate (ESAs) at this point. The genie's out of the bottle for that.

Paul Bentz, Republican pollster

鈥淒emocrats could pass more accountability measures tomorrow,鈥� said Bentz. 鈥淎ll the polling demonstrates that voters support requiring schools that receive ESA support to have the same reporting requirements, the same teacher verification and school safety, as public schools.鈥�

Still, he added, the party probably wouldn鈥檛 be able to shackle the sector 鈥� at least, not without claiming sizable Democratic majorities in November. More likely, Bentz predicted, the party would win one chamber, or perhaps enter into a 50-50 split that would necessitate some form of power-sharing.

鈥淚 don’t think they can outright eliminate [ESAs] at this point. The genie’s out of the bottle for that.鈥�

Marisol Garcia, president of the Arizona Education Association and one of the most influential union leaders in the state, held out hope for a more thorough-going victory. With a big enough legislative advantage, she said, Democrats would gain the ability to 鈥渟lowly dismantle鈥� the ESA program. While adding that state leaders should proceed with care, given the with special needs, Garcia argued that a better-funded public school system could step into the breach. 

“It has to happen slowly to honor those students,鈥� Garcia told 四虎影院. 鈥淏ut at the same time, those students should be cared for by the public schools to make sure they’re getting their needs met.鈥� 

Financial debate

For Garcia and many other educators, the principal downside to the program is financial.

According to estimates from the Arizona Department of Education, its total cost over the last fiscal year. That figure was equivalent to roughly half of the state鈥檚 deficit, in the recently passed budget through a mix of spending cuts. 

Accounts differ sharply over the total fiscal impact of private school choice, with opponents of ESA recipients as a major driver of debt; meanwhile, that the lower cost of the accounts relative to the annual per-pupil spending on public school students (about $7,500 vs. $10,000) will actually yield savings over time.  

Matthew Ladner, a veteran researcher at the Arizona Charter Schools Association and a defender of ESAs, characterized any linkage between the program鈥檚 growth and the state鈥檚 challenging budgetary projections 鈥渃ompletely and utterly false.鈥� 

“The Arizona ESA program’s budget is within the budget of the Arizona Department of Education, and last fiscal year, that department put out a press release ,鈥� Ladner said. He added that it would be 鈥渋mpossible鈥� for the department, run by Republican State Superintendent Tom Horne, 鈥渢o be running a surplus and to have simultaneously caused a budget deficit.鈥�

Yet many in the local education policy community still lament the state of K-12 finances, which could prove a headache over the next few years in either divided or unified government. Arizona has consistently ranked near the bottom of the United States for school spending, placing at over the last academic year. 

That reality resulted partially from that were enacted during the Great Recession and never fully reversed. Prolonged dissatisfaction with stagnant teacher pay led to the 2018 #RedforEd school walkouts, which helped awaken a major progressive movement in what had been a reliably red state. 

Democrats have benefitted from that organizing energy, winning the state narrowly in the 2020 presidential election and seizing a string of statewide races that culminated with Hobbs鈥檚 election in 2022. But without repeating their successes in the legislature, they haven鈥檛 been able to slow the growth of school choice or transform education funding. Even a voter-supported ballot measure that would have raised taxes to generate more revenue in聽state court.聽

Indeed, some dollars that have previously been considered safe may soon be in jeopardy. Proposition 123, an initiative passed in 2016 to school districts each year from the state鈥檚 land trust, will sunset next year unless it is reauthorized by voters. While both parties agree that the proposition should be renewed, Hobbs鈥檚 own bid to increase the outlay with a GOP counterproposal to direct funds solely to teacher salaries. The deadline to place it before the voters expired, though lawmakers can still call a special election before the money disappears.

Rich Nickel is the president of , a nonprofit group advocating for educational improvement in the state. He also believes that ESAs are likely to stay in place, though he believes more data should be collected to study the effectiveness of schools receiving money through them.

More pressing, Nickel continued, was the need for further resources in school districts struggling to emerge from years of COVID-disrupted learning. But it鈥檚 unclear whether that realization has broken through to the state鈥檚 leadership. In of the public鈥檚 views on education policy, the organization discovered 鈥渁 gap between what voters tell us they want and what they鈥檙e getting鈥� out of their elected officials, he said.

There's wide agreement among both parties, all races and ethnicities, that our leaders should be doing more to increase our achievement and attainment rates. But we're not seeing any investments.

Rich Nickel, Education Forward Arizona

鈥淭here’s wide agreement among both parties, all races and ethnicities, that our leaders should be doing more to increase our achievement and attainment rates. But we’re not seeing any investments in that in this current budget, and there’s not a lot of optimism that we’re going to see that in the next couple of years.

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